The industry revenue figures for the Jun-17 quarter recently released show headline improvement in market share for incumbents – but that is not representative of customer wallet as Jio has not reported revenues.
While on a Gross Revenue basis, 35-45% of Jio’s market share gains has come from top-3, the improving traffic mix for Jio means ~60% of market share gains on AGR level are from top 3. We believe Airtel has lost at least 80-200 bp market share since Jio’s launch, while Vodafone+Idea have lost 160-240 bp.
Jio is yet to report revenues from the telecom business, and we believe the TRAI reporting primarily captures only the interconnect payments and