Recent Posts

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4G / LTE / How Airtel Plans to Launch VoLTE Network ?
« Last post by wiredlife on May 23, 2017, 03:25:07 PM »
Airtel VoLTE rollout is relevant in the key 12-18 cites. Bharti believes that the mid band (1800 MHz) VoLTE provides a good experience, thought sub GHz (850/900 MHz) provides better experience In future, Bharti is in a position to launch VoLTE on its sub GHz network and it is future proofing its network.

Mgmt thinks VoLTE feature phone could come to market at Rs 2000-2500, which is still almost double the price of a normal feature phone. Subsidizing such phones would not make sense as these are for low-end dual SIM users.

Airtel believe that the market will move to ARPU game in the next 12-18 months and believes that the bundled packs would make
sense to lock in the ARPU. Near-term channel for the bundle packs is downgrades will happen.
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EVDO / Wi-Fi / Bharti Infratel Riding Smart City Boom
« Last post by wiredlife on May 23, 2017, 03:15:25 PM »
Bhopal Smart city project is a great learning and strategic opportunity for the company and long-term IRR is seen around c15% over a
15-year period.

Bharti Infratel continues to gain market share in tenancy additions as large part of the Jio rollout has been executed among Indus and BHIN standalone. The company suggested that the merger of Vodafone India and Idea may lead to one-time rationalization of tenancies
and any potential reduction in revenues likely to be offset by exit charges and data growth driven incremental rollout.
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4G / LTE / How Airtel is Managing Post Jio Launch ?
« Last post by wiredlife on May 23, 2017, 03:13:06 PM »
Airtel has launched price plans to counter Jio and the company’s current priority is to retain and increase its market share. The company believes its counter plans and network capacity should help achieve this. The company said that, on the positive side, churn has dipped and it has not seen any uptick in MNP (mobile number portability).

The company noted that the introduction of new price plans has led to a dip in both voice and data realization. However, this has been
accompanied by a sharp growth in volumes. The company claims that this shows that usage has started to revert back, which had been hurt due to Jio’s free offer.

85-90% of the new smartphones sold in India are now 4G-compatible. The price point is >Rs4,000. It is awaiting launch of VoLTE feature phone, which could come at lower price point. However, the company believes that price points of these feature phones have to be lower than Rs2,000-2,500 for them to be attractive.

Management suggested Bharti will have the highest data capacity per site post the acquisitions of Tikona (not listed) and Telenor India
(not listed). Bharti has a significant advantage over other incumbent telcos on data capacity and, with the smartphone adoption increasing, is well placed to benefit from overall data growth and visible gains once data
tariffs start stabilising.
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Web 2.0 / JustDial Payment to PVR - Partnership
« Last post by wiredlife on May 23, 2017, 03:09:47 PM »
Just Dial paid PVR nearly 50 mn in 2QFY17 and 60 mn in 3QFY17 for accessing their inventory on its own platform. In 4QFY17, while the company spent ~70 mn on TV advertising, this was offset by nil payments to PVR. This, coupled with some efficiency related
improvements led to lower-than-expected other expenses.

Pricing on renewals has not grown, and a major reason of this is a perceived reduction of leads by the SME clients. SMEs have been used to the quantum of leads generated in the era of voice calling; while the leads were more, conversion rates were also lower (1 in 7 leads on an average converted). Internet has been typically generating fewer leads, though the quality of leads is superior (1 in 2 leads converted on an average). JUST is educating customers in firming their internet presence, suggesting suitable packages, as well as informing them of the leads quality.

Barring WhatsApp, it does not see any other app (including UPI-based apps) providing chat-based advertising opportunity in India.
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SmartPhones & Apps / Mix shift to larger screen sizes for smartphones in India
« Last post by wiredlife on May 07, 2017, 04:47:15 PM »
Over the last seven years, the mix of smartphone shipments in India has been moving towards larger screen sizes. The average cycle for any screen size typically lasts for 3-4 years, after which shipments fall to almost negligible levels as users move on to the next bigger screen size. We have seen this phenomenon play out in China, and India seems to be lagging China by 12 months with shipments of >5" screen size constituting 67% of total smartphone shipments in 2016.

While several factors would have caused this massive mix shift, it highlights the significant increase in the usability of smartphones to carry out commerce activities among others. During this period, screen sizes increased from 4" and below to around 5" to 6". In India, smartphone screen sizes are now predominantly between 4.5" and 6".
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SmartPhones & Apps / Why Google Launched YouTube TV ?
« Last post by wiredlife on April 24, 2017, 03:32:32 PM »
Google announced YouTube TV in early March and launched the service in early April. The decision to pursue linear television
could give the company a leg-up in the increasingly competitive online streaming arena (Facebook with Live and video tab, Twitter with live video / Periscope, Amazon with Prime / NFL)

At $35/mo, YouTube is priced reasonably well versus AT&T DirecTV Now ($35-60), PS Vue ($40-75), and Sling TV ($20-40). The channel offering is compelling (includes CBS), but not without absences (no Viacom, Time Warner). The feature set appears competitive, with an unlimited 9-month DVR, simulcast capabilities x3, regional sports access and YouTube Red Originals access.

YouTube's brand, viewership and capital position the platform for streaming leadership, and we could see YouTube TV potentially positioning YouTube as a primary video hub for both Internet and linear TV longer term.
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Web 2.0 / Google's Big Bet on Machine Learning / AI in Cloud
« Last post by wiredlife on April 24, 2017, 03:27:09 PM »
Google Cloud Head Dianne Greene highlighted a recent shift in customer behavior from exploring various cloud features (like BigQuery) to initiating full lift-and-shift migrations. Consistent with recent commentary, Ms. Greene highlighted data analytics and machine learning, reliability, and customer support / service as points of differentiation, as well as security, cost, and performance.

Fei-Fei Li (Chief Scientist, Cloud AI & Machine Learning) had a particularly compelling presentation focused on the democratization of AI, considering the scope and magnitude of bringing AI capabilities to the 1bn+ daily users of Google. Ms. Li announced general availability of Cloud Machine Learning Engine (previously beta) as well as Video Intelligence API, an API enabling machine learning analytics on video content libraries. The company also announced the acquisition of Kaggle, a platform for data science and machine learning competitions with a community of 800+ thousand data scientists.
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Web 2.0 / Google Cloud gaining steam with SnapChat on Board
« Last post by wiredlife on April 24, 2017, 03:13:55 PM »
While management is unlikely to break out specific Google Cloud metrics, we expect any commentary on Cloud to suggest robust demand.

The size and enthusiasm around the Google Cloud Next conference (alongside a multitude of new product feature announcements) speaks to the ramping traction of the segment, and the disclosure of Snapchat as a 5-year $2bn customer adds further credibility to the Google Cloud Platform as a viable provider in the segment. Key points of differentiation for Google Cloud include speed of the GCP fiber network, AI capabilities, and collaborative tools with G Suite. We assume $1bn+ Cloud growth in 2017 to $3.1bn (limited profit contributions), and think the segment can achieve $10bn+ by the end of the decade.

Customer testimonials were impressive, with representatives from Disney, SAP, Colgate Palmolive, Verizon, Home Depot, HSBC, and eBay. SAP announced general availability of its GCP certified SAP HANA in-memory data and analytics platform, as well as HANA Express (developer edition). SAP also indicated plans to run SAP Cloud Platform on GCP.

Verizon announced plans to migrate 150k+ workers to G Suite beginning in a few weeks. Home Depot highlighted strong GCP performance during Black Friday spike demand, and HSBC is leveraging GCP for its data analytics capabilities. eBay had an impressive
presentation focused on ease of migration to GCP (5 month process) capped with a cold demo of Google Home integration with eBay via GCP.
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4G / LTE / Is Jio's Network Capacity Unbetable by Airtel / Vodafone ?
« Last post by wiredlife on April 11, 2017, 11:26:52 AM »
Jio believes the incumbents are materially behind and will take at least 3-4 years to reach where Jio is, today. Jio would have moved a few years further ahead on network capacity/quality aspects, by then. Essentially, Jio is suggesting a sustainable competitive moat on network capacity unless a competitor spends big in a short time to make up for lost time.

Analysts argue that Jio will continue to be ultra-disruptive and keep deploying huge incremental capital to achieve market supremacy; he/she believes Jio can potentially get an EV/GCI of as much as 2X on incremental capital deployed from here on.
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Cable / DSL Services / Airtel Opens Eyes on Home / SME Broadband - Too Late
« Last post by wiredlife on April 10, 2017, 01:04:40 PM »
Mr Nilanjan Roy, Global CFO of Bharti Airtel at Credit Suisse's Asian Investment Conference said that Airtel can deliver revenue CAGR of 8-9% on the back of higher penetration and opportunities in home and SME broadband markets.

In addition, the home broadband market is as yet untapped, with an opportunity in at least 50 mn affluent homes. Furthermore, the SME
market is expected to open up to broadband/connectivity consumption over the years.

[WE think that Airtel has failed to embrace this section of the market despite repeated personal requests to Sunil Bharti Mittal and they are opening their eyes just before Jio will launch massive Fiber Network to the Home Broadband Services]

On Jio's tariff aggression, management indicated that Bharti has responded with matching offers around Rs149/Rs349 price points, which are seeing a good response from customers.
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