TRAI?s revenue report indicates 8.1% YoY growth in industry revenue (AGR) in 1QFY16 and RMS gains of 60/0/170bps YoY for Airtel /Vodafone/Idea. In the past eight quarters, Bharti has improved RMS steadily in its 900MHz circles although continued weakness in 1800MHz circles has tempered overall gains. Idea has gained RMS in all its circles despite significant overlap with discounter Telenor. Among smaller telcos, Telenor and Sistema continued to do well (25%+ revenue growth). Over the next 5-6 years, other small telcos may see exits or consolidation due to: 1) licence renewals; 2) disproportionate impact from VoIP; and 3) impact of Jio?s predominantly urban focus.
Aircel?s YoY growth sharply slowed down to single digits. Nearly 21% of industry revenue base (Tata +RCOM + BSNL/MTNL) is shrinking,
yielding opportunities for market share improvement to others. Loss of 900MHz spectrum and a scaling down of holdings in some circles
(RCOM?s revenue weighted 900 holding is down from 1.9MHz to 0.6MHz) will exacerbate this. Telenor and Sistema grew at 25% YoY.
