R-Jio's net IC costs continue to decline at a rapid pace. 2Q saw a 23% qoq and 37% yoy decline to Rs6.55 bn. Assuming the trends on net IC movement (reflecting movement in off-net traffic imbalance) continued, R-Jio was looking at a maximum of another 4-5 quarters of being a net IC payer and a cumulative incremental net IC cost of not more than Rs20 bn even if TRAI defers the move to the BAK (bill-and-keep) regime.
In this light, it is surprising that R-Jio continues to term its move as one solely driven by TRAI coming out with fresh consultation on IUC. Having absorbed a cumulative net IC cost of Rs135 bn in the past 12-odd quarters, it is unclear why Jio could not have absorbed another Rs20 bn, worst case, in net IC cost over the next few quarters. Going by the trend, Jio is on course to become a net IC earner in the next few quarters and would have recovered this incremental burden even if the BAK-deferred was only for a period of 2 years.
To be sure, Jio is likely to benefit irrespective of the outcome of the recent consultation on IC.
