The cost/MB is a vexing question in mobile business. It has become increasingly difficult to parse the costs for voice and data as network elements are increasingly common for voice and data. Nevertheless, we have analysed Idea's financials over the last three years (12 quarters) to estimate the average cost/MB. During this period, Idea data throughput per quarter has grown from 7bn MB to 63bn MB. Our analysis suggests current average variable cost at Rs 0.18/MB for Idea.
With growth in data usage and rollout of 4G networks, we expect the cost/MB to drop by 50% over the next two years for the incumbents. Our current forecast for Idea implies an average variable cost/MB of Rs 0.10 in FY18.
