The GSM subscriber base increased by 6.3mn subscribers in Oct-15, to 739.4mn, according to data released by COAI. Subscriber count had increased by 7mn+ in Sep-15. The last 12 months? GSM net additions are 77.3mn subscribers (vs. net adds of 79.2mn from Nov-13 to Oct-14), which is healthy, in our view. All GSM players (except Videocon) saw increases in the subscriber base in Oct-15, led by Bharti Airtel, which accounted for ~44% of total net adds. Interestingly, Bharti Airtel, Idea Cellular and Vodafone, the large three GSM operators (or ?the Big 3?), accounted for ~76% of total net adds last month, just short of their combined GSM subscriber market share of ~80% (excluding BSNL, RCom and Tata Tele GSM subscribers).
Bharti Airtel shined in Oct-15, accounting for ~44% of total GSM sub additions during the month. Bharti has improved its sub addition performance in CY15, maintaining its market share and delivering healthy Y/Y growth.
Telewings added 0.9mn subscribers in the month (more than Idea?s net adds), i.e., about 15% of total net adds, which is meaningfully ahead of its current GSM subscriber market share of 6.6%. Telewings has added 6.5mn subscribers over the last 12 months, accounting for ~9% of total net adds, which is meaningfully above its current GSM subscriber market share. Notably, larger players suggest that the smaller players? (particularly Telewings?) subscriber additions are due primarily to their lower tariffs. This argument suggests that subscribers continue to be price-sensitive and that increases in effective pricing might cause market share shifts in voice toward smaller operators, who continue to turn to lower prices in order to build scale.
