A detailed circle-by-circle analysis indicates that Telenor has 8-16% subscriber market shares in its six live circles. Telenor has lower shares of spectrum in its live circles than its subscriber shares. Its market shares are 8-16% whereas its spectrum shares are only 3-5%. To increase its spectrum share to match its current market shares, we estimate that Telenor would need to spend $1.3bn valued at historical prices or $2.5bn including a 100% deal premium. There are also upcoming spectrum auctions.
Crucially, our report Battle for Primary SIM indicates that the lack of a quality data network hampers both its voice and data progress and hence Telenor has to aggressively build spectrum to stay afloat in Indian Mobile Data War.
