Reliance Jio Infocomm is all to emerge as the leading operator with 36% revenue market share in FY20 with market-share gains coming largely from Vodafone Idea. This in turn could ease tariff pressures in the sector. That said, in markets with highest 4G penetration (metros), Reliance Jio lost 4ppt market share over the past two quarters to 19%, mainly due to improved 4G networks and adoption of bundled plans by their subscribers. If such trends spill over to non-metro markets, then tariff pressures could remain for longer. Among incumbents, we expect Bharti Airtel to retain revenue market share at 31%, but Vodafone Idea is likely to lose market share in the wake of merger integration.
