Tariff cuts (Data Allowance Expectedly Increased) should accelerate usage growth leading to overall data revenue, while decelerating, remaining healthy (~30% yoy). We expect limited impact from Jio’s free offer (launched in Sep), launched a month back, and its sub
base is also too small to impact incumbents’ usage. Incumbents 3Q will however be soft as Jio’s base would be higher and it will also be a full-quarter impact.
Voice: lower volume & realization - Seasonality should impact mins growth (-2/3%qoq for Idea/Airtel) but be partly offset by a decline in voice rev/min. We expect the decline for Idea to be more as it reverses (at least partly) the uptick in voice rev/min of the last two quarters that led to a 2% premium vs Airtel in 1Q17 compared to a 6% discount in 1Q16