Jio has set a revenue target of Rs1,500bn by 2022. This implies 50% revenue market share (RMS), not a modest assumption, since other companies seem set to match Jio on location count and spectrum, and if not immediately, within 12-18 months, they should draw level on capacity.
If JIO manages to sell its entire capacity at Rs50/GB, it would reach revenue of Rs900bn. Therefore, it would need revenue of Rs600bn from other sources such as content to reach revenue of Rs1500bn. To put this in perspective, TV subscription revenue in India is Rs360bn and after assuming 15% Cagr, it can reach Rs725bn by FY22. Hence, Jio's target of Rs1,500bn looks aggressive.
At the analyst meeting, Mr. Manoj Modi, mentioned that JIO's data service has seen strong uptake among the economically lower
segments where there are limited entertainment alternatives. This raises the risk that once the services become paid, there could be a
fall in traffic as usage during the free period does not match the ability to pay.