Idea Cellular suggested that an operator will need at least 4/4.5 MHz of spectrum in the 900 MHz spectrum band for GSM/2G services and 5 MHz for mobile broadband services .This implies that the only way both data spectrum and voice spectrum demand can be met is by increasing spectrum supply, which looks difficult to achieve in the short term, in our view.
Idea faces renewal in nine service areas, accounting for 72% of its revenue, and the company has no backup 1800 MHz spectrum in two service areas. We highlight that data growth is picking up and incumbent operators will need to add more data spectrum in their key markets. Given the demand for data spectrum, there is a good possibility that the upcoming auctions may see aggressive bidding. While we see a low possibility of Idea losing spectrum in key markets, the possibility of disruptive pricing cannot be ruled out.
17% of Idea's subscribers have a 3G handset, of which only 43% have taken up a 3G data connection. This latter ratio has stayed
largely stable for the last few quarters.
How Much RMS Required for an Operator to Turn Profitable ?
According to Idea's management explained that for the new circles to turn profitable, a threshold revenue market share of 8% has to be
reached.
