India's Mobile / Wireless industry saw its first ever yoy revenue drop (in GR terms) in 3Q, driven by ramp up of Jio?s free service and demonetisation. While qoq GR drop may decelerate in 4Q from 3Q level (-5.8%), the yoy decline is likely to accelerate as per our forecasts, to nearly 10% in 4Q from 3.4% in 3Q. Airtel Vodafone and Idea saw qoq GR decline in the range of 4.9-5.5% compared to 5.8% at the industry level, with Bharti showing the lowest GR drop.
On full-year basis in FY17, industry should see its first ever revenue drop at around 1% yoy. Before 3QFY17, the worst-ever yoy growth recorded by industry was +1.1% back in 3QFY10, when price war had broken out, following the introduction of ?per second billing? by Tata Teleservices in September 2009.
