In sum, the new spectrum trading rules make it expensive for telcos to trade spectrum since the seller has to pay licence and spectrum fees (LF+SUC). But the rules are a major positive since they can spur consolidation, as with time, mounting losses, debt and reducing life of the base spectrum will increase pressure on many struggling telcos to sell their expensive 3G/4G spectrum, thus providing an exit path other than the complicated route of mergers. JIO?s may consider its need for 850 urgent enough to justify paying Rs57bn for the 5-year spectrum, and RCOM?s LF+SUC payment of Rs7bn. But to prevent revenue loss, RCOM and Sistema will both need separate CDMA spectrum for voice and data, which means the complication of a merger. Further, in selected areas Aircel, RCOM and Tata can sell 3G/4G spectrum to reduce debt without materially impacting their business. But time is not on their side as another 3G auction looms in FY16 and bigger telcos may choose that cleaner route if potential sellers play hardball.
