EDGE still constitutes ~75% of Indian Wireless industry data revenues despite the rapid growth in 3G. However, this should change on the back of both steady growth in 3G revenues as well as commercial LTE launch by operators (Bharti has already launched;
Jio/Vodafone likely in Dec). We estimate that 3G will be 50% of the data revenues in five years, LTE 40% and the remaining EDGE.
Our estimates assume both 3G and LTE will play an important role in industry data growth. We don?t expect the industry to jump directly to LTE, because:
Not all the 1800/800MHz spectrum can be deployed for LTE, as part of it will have to be used for voice; and
The ecosystem of 3G is more developed vs. LTE's, i.e., cheaper equipment and handsets. This trend is likely to continue in the medium term.
The percentage of subscribers using data is likely to jump from 20% currently to 40% over the next two years on. Affordable 3G/4G handsets; and Reduction in data rates with the new capacity from Jio.
Like any new entrant, Jio will eat into the revenue market share of the incumbents, especially the weaker players (inferior quality/quantity spectrum and lower capex spend). Jio will offer both voice and data, but its market-share gains would likely be more significant in data than voice given the trend in the sector. The handset replacement cycle is likely to lead to a gradual increase in LTE
compatible handsets. Jio plans to offer mi-fi devices. This could be an interim measure until handsets become widely held by subscribers.
