Market share gains for incumbents, especially Airtel and Idea, have been greater in circles where the operators acquired 3G spectrum in 2010 (referred hereon as 3G circles).
During Sep 2010 to Mar 2016 timeframe, Airtel gained a market share of 226 bps in 3G circles compared to a loss of 297 bps in non-3G circles. Idea gained a market share of 756 bps in 3G circles and 504 bps in non-3G circles (see Exhibit 3). The trend for other operators has been mixed.
Idea's performance was strong across circles, the company managed to materially improve its market share not only in its growth/emerging geographies but also in its leadership circles in FY2016 over FY2015. Overall, the company improved its gross revenue market share by 136 bps.
Although the incumbents continue to grow from strength to strength, their stock price movements are likely to move in accordance with what happens on the R-Jio front (especially for Idea). We see the two telcos as solid long-term plays and believe the stocks (especially idea) have the potential to deliver handsome results once the near-term headwinds subside
