In 2011 Google renewed its deal with Apple to be the default search engine for its mobile Safari browser and this agreement is set to expire sometime in 2015. Apple has recently switched its mobile search provider for Siri and Spotlight from Google to Bing. So Google could either lose the Safari business or that the terms could become less favorable to Google at renewal as Bing is likely to give Google a run for its money. With consistent shift from Browser based navigation to Apps, we estimate that Safari toolbar searches revenue in 2015 is likely to be $4 Bn in the United States and another $ 2 Bn outside the US [based on 2014 Data from various SEM / IDC ]
If Google would no longer be the default search engine on mobile Safari browsers, we believe that Safari would still include an option allowing the user to manually switch the default search engine back to Google. For users that do so, we believe the TAC that Google would have to pay Apple for searches in the Safari toolbar would be much lower than the 30% rate they currently pay, as Google would not be paying Apple for distribution.