Reliance Jio 4G gaining share from ALL operators

The industry revenue figures for the Jun-17 quarter recently released show headline improvement in market share for incumbents – but that is not representative of customer wallet as Jio has not reported revenues.

While on a Gross Revenue basis, 35-45% of Jio’s market share gains has come from top-3, the improving traffic mix for Jio means ~60% of market share gains on AGR level are from top 3. We believe Airtel has lost at least 80-200 bp market share since Jio’s launch, while Vodafone+Idea have lost 160-240 bp.

Jio is yet to report revenues from the telecom business, and we believe the TRAI reporting primarily captures only the interconnect payments and receipts, while actual receipts from customers are not yet disclosed. However, with 125 mn subscribers (a large number of who are paying), Jio should already have a meaningful share of customer wallet – which we have tried to calculate in this note.

We assume all paying customers of Jio were on the Rs309 plan (valid for 84 days), in line with the company’s public comments. Indeed, this would have been the best plan for a Jio customer last quarter in all aspects, and any other plan would actually lead to better numbers for Jio in this analysis. The company reported 123 mn/93 mn SIMs/active
SIMs end of quarter, respectively – we are not sure how many of these are paying subs (we know that there were at least 73 mn paying subs as of 31-Mar, as announced). We suspect the number of paid subs would be somewhere in between the active and total SIM numbers.

We conclude that Jio has probably reached 9-10.5% revenue share on gross revenues, and 6-9% on net (AGR) revenues in Q1-FY18.