Why Airtel / Vodafone / Idea Won’t Overbid in 2015 Mega Spectrum Auction ?

2015 900Mhz Spectrum Auction 8 operators have submitted applications to participate in the bidding for the 2015 Mega Telecom Spectrum Auction. Reliance Jio is the surprise entrant with highest earnest money deposit (EMD) thus creating the fears of aggressive bidding. Idea cellular will be the most vulnerable if Reliance focuses on winning the 900MHz band Idea doesn’t have enough fire power to bid up if the process turns aggressive as the capability is limited by the EMD paid and may have to take an alternative path to the 2100 Mhz spectrum.

Why will Airtel / Vodafone and Idea Cellular Avoid Overbidding ?

I will renew my 900 MHz renewal spectrum at any cost

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Idea’s Risk of Spectrum Renewal in 2015 Auction, LTE Delay A Risk ?

Idea Spectrum Renewal ChallengeIn the upcoming 2015 mega spectrum auctions, Idea Cellular has 900 Mhz spectrum up for renewal in 9 circles accounting for about 72% of Idea’s last twelve month (LTM) revenues. In 2 circles (Gujarat and UP (West)), Idea has almost no back-up spectrum to offer voice services and about 15% of its revenues from these circles would be at high risk if it is unable to renew the spectrum.

In the upcoming spectrum auctions in February 2015, 59 MHz of 900 MHz and 9.2 Mhz of 1800 Mhz frequency of Idea are coming up for renewal. If we take DoT reserve prices as the auction price, we expect total renewal outgo to be Rs172 bn for Idea following the auction.

Idea has significant gaps in its

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Demand for 3G Data / 2G – 900MHz Renewal Spectrum in 2015 Auction

900Mhz-spectrum-auction2015 Mega Telecom Spectrum Auction reserve price is on expected lines except for 900 MHz, where it is materially higher than TRAI’s recommendations (modestly higher than Telecom Commission’s recommendation). We expect good demand for 900 MHz spectrum as it is primarily renewal spectrum, which existing owners will try to retain in the backdrop of DoT mandating bidding in blocks of 5 MHz instead of TRAI’s recommended 3.6MHz and Operators having opposed the same in pre bid conference. The 900Mhz Spectrum can be very efficiently used for 3G Mobile Data Services as well as 2G Voice services.

The government has decided to

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Net Neutrality and Where do We Stand in the Debate ?

In the Global Telecom industry the most debated topic is Net Neutrality. Wikipedia defines net neutrality as the principle that Internet service providers and governments should treat all data on the Internet equally, not discriminating or charging differentially by user, content, site, platform, application, type of attached equipment, or mode of communication.

Telcos argument is wireless players should be allowed to (1) control the quality of service (QoS) of different data services (to ensure optimal experience for all users on the network) and/or (2) charge differentially for various data services to capture their fair share of the value being created by mobile data explosion. Quite understandably, the OTT players are on the other side of the

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How does India Compare with China & Malaysia in 3G eco-system ?

3G Comparison in India, China and Malaysia4 Years after the Limited 3G Spectrum was auctioned in the 2100MHz band, we’ll take a peek into how we are doing with our competitors in Asia – China and Malaysia on various factors. We are classifying based on the Big 4 Factors that help determine the success of Mobile Data.

3G Network Status

  • India – 3G coverage and average data speed remains lowest in Asia. Unlikely to expand given low
    capex guidance and balance sheet constraints
  • China – 3G coverage has already reached ~75%. Average data speed is best in the EM space and comparable to DM markets. Massive 4G buildout ongoing
  • Malayasia – 3G networks are already built-out however we see investments remain soft in the LTE space. Thus in our view network pull factor is relatively soft in Malaysia.

SmartPhone Availability

  • India – Smartphone penetration is ~17% of population base. Expect it

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How Bharti Infratel Grows & Makes Money ?

Bharti Infratel GrowthIndus Telecom Towers and Bharti Infratel together constitute 38% of the total tower portfolio in India.

Telecom Tower Tenancy & Demand
Bharti Infratel suggests that a vast majority of its tower have two tenants. c40% of BIL’s towers have single tenant. Management highlights that the company has one of the best quality tenants. BIL’s top three customers contribute to 85% of its revenues and tenancies. The company also suggests that the top three customers have more loading. Bharti Infratel is not building new towers for Reliance Jio (RJio), which typically comes in only as the second or third tenant on their towers. RJio has started impacting BIL’s financials only in the last two quarters.

Management suggests that further growth

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How Many More 3G Operators can be Accommodated in 900Mhz Spectrum Band ?

Contiguity is the key factor for the launch of 3G services and a minimum requirement for a successful rollout. We look at availability of extra spectrum across the circles (including surrender of spectrum from BSNL) and the corresponding contiguous blocks.

We note that in six of the 18 circles, there is a creation of an additional block of 5Mhz thereby allowing each of the top-three operators to gain presence in the market. On the contrary, in other circles, for example in Madhya Pradesh, either of the top-three is capable of winning, while

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Idea Cellular Data ARPU / Usage up 10% QoQ – Voice Lowers

Idea Cellular 3G Data GrowsIdea Cellular pure wireless services revenue growth accelerated to 21% yoy, a combination of 17% yoy voice volume growth (to 162.5 bn minutes; 3.5% ahead of expectations; down 1.7% qoq) and 3% blended yoy RPM improvement (to 45.9 paise / minute; 1.6% below expectations). Voice RPM declined 2.4% qoq and 3.1% yoy to 36.2 paise/min IDEA added 4.6mn subs in 2Q taking the total subscribers to 143.6 Mn subscribers at end of Sept-2014.

Idea Cellular Data business continues to fire on all cylinders
IDEA added 3mn data subscribers

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RCom to Leverage on Reliance Jio’s Fiber & Tower Infrastructure

RCom to Leverage on RJio NetworkReliance Communications Management has guided for capex investment of Rs15-20bn for FY15 following a capex-light model. They indicated that they will be receiving any additionally required fibre and tower assets from Reliance Jio through the reciprocal arrangement and will only invest in electronics.

The company has realigned its low-usage cell sites to achieve base station level profitability. This will have a temporary effect on the subscribers in those geographies; however, the company intends to use ICR (intra-circle roaming) arrangements to provide services in those areas. Management attributed the decline in the revenues of global operations to

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Bharti Infratel to Ride on Incremental 3G /4G Tenancies

Bharti Infratel 3G 4G TenancyThe nature of growth in the tower industry has undergone a substantial change, reflecting the change in maturity, structure and growth drivers of the mobile telecom sector. The coverage of key mobile operators is now more or less complete. The focus is now on augmenting voice capacity and data coverage. As a consequence, the tower industry growth is being driven more by increase in tenancies than through new tower additions.

According to Bharti Infratel management most 3G sites are co-located with 2G sites and over
time, as data grows, standalone 3G sites would drive

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