Reliance Jio 4G LTE Mega Nation Wide Launch Delayed

Reliance Jio 4G LTE LaunchBased on our Industry & Insider channel checks, we find Reliance Jio Infocomm well placed to meet the rollout obligations by Aug-2015 i.e. they will likely have a soft launch with adequate towers. We believe that the actual launch will be around Dec-15 coinciding with founder Dhirubhai Ambani’s birth anniversary (vs. market expectation of May-15) as the company may take some time to have a good quality network to be operational.

In our independent assesment some of the reasons for the delay in launch vs. our expectations are 1) Time taken to rollout fiber as approvals for right of way (RoW) take time; 2) Rolling out a good quality 2300MHz & 1800Mhz 4G network with offloading via WiFi and Small-cells is taking more time and 3) Jio may look for a good quality voice solution on 4G network like Vo-LTE with the latest acquistion of 800Mhz spectrum rather than a fallback on traditional 2G or 3G network.

If the company is going for

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Reliance Jio Opts for Mega Triple Play (VoLTE, TV, Broadband) Launch

Reliance Jio Triple Play DemoReliance Jio Infocomm will likely have a triple play [Voice, TV and Boadband Data] focusing on full data wallet of subscribers – the launch will likely be in quick, successive phases commencing in 2H2015 [Launch, Bit Delayed]. Reliance insiders tell us that RJio will likely simultaneously launch all its three services – wireless services, wireline fiber-to-home offerings (along with TV market) and wireline services to corporate clients. We think that RJio is being seen laying fiber in most of the large towns currently – for e.g. visible to us in Mumbai – causing the impression that RJio will likely go with fiber-to-home offering initially. However, we believe the fiber is laid out to connect towers so that large amount of data can be routed through fiber across towers for the desired quality.The company will also provide fiber-to-home i.e. the last

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Can Reliance Jio Launch 4G-LTE Data / Broadband at 50% Discount to Incumbents ?

Reliance jio Infocomm Launch Data RatesIn our previous report we have analyzed the need for disruption by Reliance Jio Infocomm in the Indian Telecommunications space. Today we’d like to throw some light on what will likely happen to the Hottest Area of Telecom – Mobile Broadband / Data Services if Reliance Jio were to launch at 50% discount to incumbent players.

The current realization is 25-29 paise/MB for incumbents; this is not the most aggressive disruption assumption), it would mean R-Jio starts selling at 15 paise/MB. Current 3G usage in India (on a base of around 52 mn subs) is

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How Can Reliance Jio Disrupt Indian Mobile / Wireless Market ?

We Probably have the highest coverage on Reliance Jio Infocomm in the public domain analyzing each and every move the company makes openly. In the absence of any clear road map being portrayed by the Ambani’s team to Public / Shareholders; we try to address three main issues on the Disruption in Indian Wireless by the launch of Reliance Jio Infocomm.

Does Reliance Jio intent to disrupt the Telecom space in India which is stabilizing after the 2G Spectrum Scam – The honest answer is

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Can Reliance Jio Create Accelerated Demand in Low 3G Market ?

Empirical Evidence on Wireless Broadband adoption from across the World suggest that meaningful 3G penetration is a necessary condition for accelerated LTE adoption. Can a deep pocket player like Reliance Jio Infocomm overcome the challenges posed by low 3G penetration in India ? Can R-Jio create an offering / ecosystem to drive 4G adoption by 2G customers without the in-between 3G upgrade? Quite honestly, we do not know. However, we do believe that a price disruption centric strategy to achieve this will make any business case extremely challenging for Mukesh Ambani led Reliance.

Consider just the handset challenge

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RCom to Leverage on Reliance Jio’s Fiber & Tower Infrastructure

RCom to Leverage on RJio NetworkReliance Communications Management has guided for capex investment of Rs15-20bn for FY15 following a capex-light model. They indicated that they will be receiving any additionally required fibre and tower assets from Reliance Jio through the reciprocal arrangement and will only invest in electronics.

The company has realigned its low-usage cell sites to achieve base station level profitability. This will have a temporary effect on the subscribers in those geographies; however, the company intends to use ICR (intra-circle roaming) arrangements to provide services in those areas. Management attributed the decline in the revenues of global operations to

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Reliance Jio’s Massive Optical Fiber Network + 5 NationWide Data Centers

Reliance Jio OFC NetworkIndustry Channel Checks are indicating that Reliance Jio Infocomm has quietly rolled out ~100,000 Rkm (route kilometer) of optic fibre cable, and the rollout continues at a fast clip. This is already comparable with fibre rolled out by the rest of the industry. Sources Indicate Reliance Jio already has the largest intra-city optic fibre network with 85,000+ km across 700-800 towns. This is a major differentiator for mobile backhaul in an industry with sub 10% fiber penetration into towers. Till date, Airtel Vodafone and Idea Cellular have used 12-24 fibre threads, while RJio is using mostly cables with 288 fibres (in some cases 96 fibres).

What if Reliance Communications & Reliance Jio OFC Networks Complement Each Other ?
Till now, RCom was believed to have the largest fibre network among private operators, with an intra-city network of ~70,000 Rkm [Once again laid under the direct project Management by

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Reliance Jio Infocomm to build 4G WiFi services across Hyderabad & Telangana

Hyderabad Wi-Fi 4G ServicesReliance Jio Infocomm’s ambitious Telecom venture got a shot in the arm today as the company has completed rolling out 500 Km of optic fibre cable in Hyderabad alone and remaining 1,200 Km will be done soon. Reliance Jio will be the biggest competitor for Beam Telecom Which has one of the best FTTH Broadband Service in Hyderabad.

Reliance Jio has earmarked a massive Rs 4,100 Crore [$ 700 Mn] investment to build 4G WiFi services across Telangana which includes the City of Hyderabad, six other municipal corporations and 37 municipalities across the state in the first phase and expects to cover the rest

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Reliance JIo LTE – A Serious Threat to Reliance / MTS / Tata Photon EVDO Broadband

Reliance Jio to Compete with EVDO BroadbandReliance Jio Infocomm‘s 4G LTE and FTTH is a serious threat to hi-speed EVDO based broadband dongles as a natural initial market. The dongle business marries well with the expected USP of Reliance Jio’s service offering – speed. High average usage on dongles (we estimate usage of around 1.5-1.8 GB/month/sub across the estimated EVDO dongle subs base of 8-9 mn in the country), low customer expectations on seamless coverage (versus handset customers), and no need for voice capabilities makes dongles a natural market for Jio to focus on.

EVDO Broadband offerings from Reliance NetConnect, Tata Photon and MTS MBlaze have a lion’s share of the dongle market

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Reliance Jio to Launch With Scale of Airtel / Idea

At the AGM of Reliance Industries, Mukesh Ambani told that Reliance Jio Infocomm network will be ubiquitous, covering 5,000 cities and towns (90% of urban population) and 215,000 villages “initially”. To put these numbers in perspective, Airtel is present in 5,121 towns and 461,000 villages as of Mar-2014. Thus Reliance Jio’s network coverage at launch is likely to be quite comparable to Airtel / Idea’s in terms of reach (more so in terms of revenue targeting, given the urban markets have
higher ARPU’s and hence account for significant share of revenues). Over the longer term,

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