Reliance Jio Acquisition of Videocon + Merger with Tata DoCoMo, Aircel – A Case Study

Reliance jio Acquisition and MergersConsolidation in the Indian Telecom industry is inevitable with weaker players such as Tata DoCoMo / Indicom looking to exit as its already negative networth worsens by the day. The current M&A Rules of the Government indicate 50% combined market share and 25% total spectrum cap (50% in a given band). Market share is based on both subscriber base (VLR-based) and adjusted gross revenues (AGR). We analyze on this front as bottomline of all the Challenger has been bleeding in red for quite few years now.

We have already enlightened that Reliance Jio Infocomm bid in circles where Videocon’s 1800Mhz Spectrum was

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How Vodafone Hiked Voice Tariffs in Jan/Feb 2014 ?

Breaing NewsVoice continues to be the major Revenue Engine for Telecommunications Companies in India. Telcos move tariffs in India on a circle-by-circle strategy using Big Data Analytics to improve their ARPU realizations. Excerpts from our Database are as under on how Vodafone India moved its Voice Tariffs in the first 2 months of 2014.

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Why 3G mobile Data is Lagging SmartPhone Adoption in India ?

3G in India vs SmartPhone AdoptionMobile phones have increasingly become more than a communication device – 40% of the respondents in a survey across urban/ semi-urban and rural areas claim that it is currently their primary means of entertainment. While people are upgrading their phones to smartphones and increasingly using their phones to watch videos, listen to music or take photos, having a smartphone does not equate to having a mobile data plan yet. People quite frequently buy pirated content (videos/ music) from local retailers; which is then shared among friends. Moreover, the rise in the number of people that have smartphones, but no data subscription is leading to the growth

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Reliance Jio likely to create 2 Business Units – 4G LTE Monetization

Reliance Jio Infocomm LogoAccording to Analysys Mason, Reliance Jio Infocomm is expected to setup two separate business lines – one for traditional mobile business (competing with incumbent operators) and the other targeting homes (broadband and content distribution platform – competing with broadband players and distribution plays such as Cable and DTH).

Globally, LTE has been monetized either through Selling more data as LTE has higher throughput than other technologies Creating new revenue streams, which involves selling content/ applications (i.e. games, movies on demand, mobile TV etc). A hybrid model is increasingly being employed by telcos for monetizing their 4G networks. Since Reliance Jio is yet to launch 4G services, they are likely to adopt hybrid LTE Model going forward.

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Idea Keen on Renewing 900MHz Spectrum During Next Auction, Shrugs 4G-LTE Threat

Idea Cellular Management MeetIdea Cellular CEO Mr Himanshu Kapania and CFO Mr Akshaya Moondra hosted an Analyst call in which they highlighted the company’s strategy going forward.

On Spectrum
First, the company believes it is important to have a data offering for customers in the metro markets, and Idea’s top preference was Delhi. Idea chose Delhi because one additional block of 5Mhz spectrum was available, it is the No 3 operator by revenue market share, and it

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Reliance Jio Infocomm Launch in Late 2014 – A New Case for Price War

Reliance Jio LaunchReliance Jio Infocomm which is in advanced stages of Testing its 4G LTE networks is expected to launch its Telecom Services in late 2014 with the focus primarily being on data services (although they may launch Vo-LTE voice offerings). We expect Reliance Jio, Being a new entrant, to launch an aggressive offering to gain traction in the already overcrowded telcos market. (Historically, we have seen all new telcos use this approach to gain traction). This may force existing telcos to reduce tariffs to match the aggressive offering.

We believe any new competitor like Reliance Jio who

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How 95% Pre-Paid Users with Unbundled Packages Will Deter Airtel / Vodafone/ Idea ?

Unbundled Pre-Paid Users a Liablity on TelcosThe A-Vo-Id [Airtel, Vodafone, Idea Cellular] Telecom Operator Lobby Control over 2/3rd of the Indian Telecom Market. They have ~95% of their subscribers on the pre-paid platform and never did they make any effort to convert them to post-paid. Never did you see them offering Bundled Packages [SmartPhones,Unlimited Voice, SMS and 3G Data] even in post-paid segment. Reliance Communications was the only exception in this regard which offered iPhone and Unlimited Calling Pack.

To date, A-Vo-Id operators focus has been on cannibalisation of SMS revenues by messaging apps (WhatsApp, Viber, WeChat, etc). Clearly, the advent of OTT voice adds an additional potential threat. At first glance, the amount of revenue exposed to

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Killer App: OTT Voice Can Cannibalize Telco Revenues in Long Term

OTT Apps and Voice Cannibalization ThreatIn the Global telecom industry, only the Indian market was able to generate double-digit YoY revenue growth, driven by both a recovery in voice Revenue per Minute (RPM) as the competitive environment among the players improved, and an additional kicker from data growth—in other words, both growth engines were still working.

From a revenue perspective, at least for the time being, the advent of smartphones has created an additional growth driver for the sector, in the form of data revenues generated. Thus, to date in the region, the amount of SMS and voice revenue cannibalised by OTT mobile messenger applications, such as WhatsApp, WeChat and LINE, has been more than offset by the data revenue generated.

OTT voice a further cannibalisation threat
Three things have changed over the last 6-12 months that in our view

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How Idea Cellular Pre-Paid Tariffs Moved in Jan-Feb 2014 ?

Idea Mobile pre-Paid Tariff ChangesIdea Cellular the plain vanilla voice operator hiked 2G Voice Tariffs for its large pre-paid subscriber base (95%) across 12 circles based on Big Data Analytics of its Billing Team so that the pinch is not felt on the pockets of consumer and yet Revenue Per Minute [RPM] goes up marginally across each circle. The Analytics team chooses the most optimal way to do this so that the company doesn’t lose consumers as well yet maximize the profit in the cluster / circle.

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